POPULATION AND MIXED MARRIAGES

Sitt,--1 was very interested in Mr. Donnelly's letter in your issue of July 9, and agree luny wan his main conclusion tuat Parents Associations should concern themselves with the cause of the family as well as with the school. This correspondence owed its origin, in reality, to an ..estimate " made by a group of experts in 1933 and published by Dr. Fetid Charles in 1935. She calculated that the number of children by marriage had fallen by 28 per cent. from 2,35 in 1923 to 1.69 in 1933, and she assumed a further fall of 21 per cent. from 1.47 in 1938 to 1.13 in 1948, and a continued fall of 20 per cent. each decade to a minimum of .52 (say half a child per family!) by 1983. Ott this basis, she estimated that the population of this country would fall from the 1935 figure of 40,500,000 souls to a figure in the year 2035 of only 4,400,000 souls. A Catholic's reaction to these figures is that these economists have carried out once again their favourite trick of ignoring God and the Catholic Church. [The population was debated in the House of Commons on July 16, and not one speaker seemed to be aware that God is the Maker and Father of us all] The experts of 1933 had taken the figures for the whole country, had not enquired as to their composition, and had assumed that they were homogeneous.
I would submit:
(1) That the cause of the decline in population in this country is sin. That at only God can know if this sin will, in fist, engulf the whole population. (3) That we must assume that practising Catholics, at least, do not indulge in this sin; therefore, the statistics are not homogeneous. (4) That if Catholic young people marry as early as the general population, then the practising Catholic families must form a substantial minority which will increase and so make nonsense of the figures of the experts. This is a grave matter for us Catholics; we are, it would seem, an oasis in a desert of sin. We cannot judge our non-Catholic fellow countrymen, but for us, if we do it, this sin means eternal damnation. Therefore, mixed marriages take on a very serious added risk, and the tradition of the Church is seen to be most wise.
Now what do the figures tell us? For the whole country these are the
figures:
AVERAGES FOR ENGLAND .ND Years: 1924-5 (2 years), 1926-30 (5 years). 1931-5 (5 years), 1936-42 (7 years). Births: 720.3, 660.3, 604.6, 620 (thousands).
Marriages: 296, 304, 325.8, 391.6 (thousands). Births divided by marriages :2.43, 2.17. 1.85, 1.55. Dr. Enid Charles's assumption gives the following figures: No. of children per family: 1923, 2.33; 1926-30, 2; l931-5. 1.69; 1936-40, 1.47. It would seem then that the birthrate per marriage has, so far, been falling at least as rapidly as Dr. Charles assumed in 1935. be readily appreciated that it requires a good deal more than two children per marriage if the population is not to fall in the long run, because not every batty girl gets married. Some die in childhood, and some do not find a suitable partner. In Eire (according to Professor CarrSaunders) over 50 per cent. of the women do not get married before the age of 35, and over 25 per cent. do not get married at all. Now let us look at the Catholic figures, so far as they are available.
They are as follows: • FIVE-YEAR AVERAGES 1915-19, 1920-24, 1925-29, 1930-34, 1935-39. Children's baptisms: 59.5, 69.5, 65.6, 64.6, 67.2 (thousands).
Marriages: 18.1, 21.1, 21,3, 24.3, 29.7 (thousands). Baptisms divided by marriages: 3.22,
3.29, 3.08, 2.66, 2.26.
Are we to conclude from these figures that this hideous evil is gaining ground among Catholics also? Let us examine the figures more closely. I would put forward the following considerations. The Iasi ten years have witnessed a very large increase in the number of marriages (especially among young people). For th England and Wales, e 1936-42 figure was 20 per cent. above that for 1931-33. For Catholics, the figures Increased 22 per cent. between 1930-34 and 1935.39. Why did the increase of 22 per cent. in Catholic marriages not produce a proportionate increase in baptisms? (I) We should not expect a proportionate increase. The 1935-39 baptisms correspond in many cases to marriages contracted in 1925-9, 1920-4, especially in the large families. Nevertheless, the 5.40e increase in marriages ought to have produced at least 5,400 more births.
(2) The figures are undoubtedly affected by the prevalence of mixed marriages. (a) Couples often go through a form of marriage outside the Church —yet their children are baptised. (b) Other couples get married in the Catholic Church, and never darken the doors of the Church again.
(3) There is a strong suspicion that
the effect of a mixed marriage nowadays is often to drag the Catholic partner down into the abyss of this vile sin.
My own personal view is that this
last is the main explanation of the fall in the ratio, and that, therefore, the average Catholic family has fallen. This does not alter my firm convic tion that the sound core of practising Catholics will, by God's grace, grow in numbers simply by obeying God's command to increase and multiply.
JOHN F. L. BRAY.
Loreto, 132, Abbots Road,
Abbots 'Langley, Watford, Herts.