Is Peru on the way to a peaceful change?

Paul Donovan reports on the situation in Peru, where next April's elections look set to bring about needed changes. THE HUMAN RIGHTS situation in Peru has improved since the capture of Abimael Guzman and the demise of Sendero Luminoso. The level of disappearances has declined from 200 in 1992 to 20 so far this year. The use of anti-terrorist law appears to have been utilised mainly to remove unwanted persons from the streets. Some observers believe there could be as many as 1000 innocent persons in the prisons of Peru at present. 70 per cent of those in prison are not sentenced.
Approaching the election Fujimori will seek to maximise what he regards as his major successes over five years in power. Foremost among these achievements" have been the triumph over Sendero Luminoso and the re-establishment of Peru as a member of the international financial community.
Inflation has been reduced to a rate of one per cent a month and in the structurally adjusted world of the multilateral institutions Peru is regarded as something of a
model student. Debt servicing and the willingness of FujimorPs Government to accept structural adjustment policies have meant that multilateral institutions like the World Bank and Inter American Development Bank have been prepared to make more funding available.
However, these funds have not flowed through to the majority of the population with those living in poverty arising from seven to 12 million over the past four years. Despite the regular debt repayments Peru's total indebtedness has risen from $17 billion to $22 billion.
Only one in 10 of the Peruvian population is regarded as fully employed with 70 per cent classified as underemployed. Whilst GNP has continued to grow under Fujimori development has declined with the gap between rich and poor widening. The priorities behind the administration of the economy were underlined with a comparison between the spending on the social programme and payments to multilateral institutions.
Much of the media coverage concerning the pending Presidential election in Peru has centred on the rift between Fujimori and his wife Susan Higuchi. Following claims of corruption in Fujimori's cabinet Higuchi declared her intention to run against her husband in the presidential election.
Laura Vargas recalled how Fujimori suddenly appeared on television at 11 one night to declare that Susan Higuchi was no longer the First Lady. The announcement was something of a mistake in etiquette given that the position of First Lady in Peru is not an official office but a custom. Susan Higuchi is
among six candidates standing in the presidential election.
On September 23 Peres de Cueller declared that he would be standing in the election. The NGO's, intellectuals and economists are supporting Peres de Cueller who is expected to become the main candidate opposing Fujimori. In a recent opinion poll Fujimori received 35 per cent support whilst Peres de Cueller registered 27 per cent. Peres de Cueller is unlikely to offer any radically alternative economic policy but is believed to be offering greater democracy and a more humane approach to the problems of poverty. The question of how the military would react to anything other than a Fujimoro victory is likely to prove crucial to any future Peruvian administration.
For many community groups the challenge is to discover new models of democracy. Fujimori has ruled with a small autocratic elite including senior military personnel which has created a vacuum. Grass roots organ isations were decimated in the fight between Sendero Luninoso and the Government. The only organisations that managed to retain any structure were womens groups which are now to the forefront of what is a fast evolving scene at grass roots level. CEAS is involved with these groups and also endeavours to assert some influence on Government structures mainly in the area of the judiciary. The situation in Peru seems to be changing all the time and the period between now and the election in April promises to be crucial.