Dilemma over devolution

AS Parliament reassembles at Westminster for the first session of the New Year the dominant issues are already clear. They are devolution, Ireland and • the economy, and the Commons is going to he closely concerned with all three in the weeks and months that lie ahead.
Devolution places both the major parties in a dilemma: they are committed to a measure of Scottish and Welsh autonomy but neither Government nor Opposition have any time for separatism. Yet both are faced with a political threat from the Scottish Nationalists who are outbidding the old-established parties on the autonomy issue and at the same time are riding high on a wave of electoral support.
The Conservatives were the principal victims of revived nationalism at the last election: I dbour is likely to he the principal sufferer at the next. The government proposals represent an attempt to buy off the Scottish Nationalists. and they will not succeed. As I write. Conservative policy has yet to he fully formulated.
The worst course to follow in this type of situation is that of expediency. The nationalist tide in Scotland is moving too strongly to be deflected by temporary devices, hence the discredit into which Mr Short's proposals have already fallen. The right and the better course is to return to principle.
First, I believe that we should set our faces against separatism. An independent Scotland would in the long run be a disaster for all parts of the nation.
It could prosper for a time, propped up by the revenues from North Sea oil, but these will be exhausted within two decades and in any case are vulnerable to the movements of world oil prices which can move down as well as up.
The first aim of responsible political policy should be the preservation of the United Kingdom. On this point there can he no compromise with the Nationalists.
The second principle of policy should be acceptance of a generous measure of devolution. There should be an independent directly elected assembly for Scotland with power over the areas of policy for which the Secretary of State for Scotland at present 'holds responsibility. There is really no point in retaining control of these matters at Westminster.
Scottish domestic affairs are in practice run by Scottish MPs and it would make much more sense to centre their activities in Edinburgh or Glasgow than London. The Executive in Scotland should he a real one with substantial powers but it should not be independent of Westminster.
De facto independence would he ensured from the very fact of setting up the Assembly but de jure autonomy is quite another matter. One of the major weaknesses of the present government scheme is that it contains built-in possibilities of conflict between Westminster and Scotland. Thirdly, I believe — and this is a personal view — that the Assembly should be elected on the basis of proportional representation. The great danger of any Assembly is that it will be used as an engine for the advance of the nationalist cause.
There is a real danger that an election in Scotland in the near future on the first-past-the-post, winner take all system. would produce an assembly totally dominated by the Nationalists. Proportional representation would avoid this undesirable and unrepresentative outcome.
In the long run Scottish Nationalism will not be defeated by constitutional expedients but by a revival of prosperity in the United Kingdom as a whole, The recession in Britain is now reaching its bottom. and although, as I pointed out in the first article contributed this year. this will take time to he reflected in the employment and economic indicators, time is on the side of those who wish to preserve the union.
The principles which should guide policy in Ireland are similar to those which should prevail in Scotland. The preservation of the union between Britain and Northern Ireland as long as the majority of the population there wish it should remain a lodestar of British policy.
Power should be devolved to a new Stormont but the condition precedent of any such step must he power-sharing. The line that should be drawn is not between those who wish to maintain the links with Britain and those who do not. but between those who are ready to confine themselves to peaceful and democratic means to obtain their ends and those who resort to violence and force.
As long as the Ulster "loyalists" support the hard line of exclusion of the Catholic minority from power, direct rule must continue. The outlook for Northern Ireland is certainly bleak, but the will of the British people to shoulder their responsibilities has not been destroyed by T R A terrorism. It could be fatally eroded by extreme Protestant intransigence.
There are no easy solutions for British problems in either Scotland or Ireland. and no quick ones either. Both Government and Opposition will have to exercise patience and statesmanship if we are to have any chance of a peaceful outcome of the crisis.
Parliament has made a valuable contribution to the situation this week by providing a forum in which the different views within the nation have been able to be expressed.